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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 18

Chicago Bears 31 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 8-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.39 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 18, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model