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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 25

Chicago Bears 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(:49) 25-K.Monangai right guard to CIN 20 for 5 yards (49-B.Carter; 44-D.Knight).

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.15 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model