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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 23

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.07 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model