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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2025-01-26 · 18:30 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🥶 Cold Spread 1.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

BUF
60.2%
KC
39.8%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.247 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.137 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.269 EPA/dropback
  • KC offense: +0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 27
–
KC 23
Projected margin: BUF by 4 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 21

BUF

Taylor Rapp S Out Back
Christian Benford CB Questionable Concussion
Baylon Spector LB Questionable Calf

KC

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 21 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 29
–
KC 32

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:02 TD KC (9:02) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – KC 6
  • Q1 03:49 FG BUF (3:49) 2-T.Bass 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 3 – KC 7
  • Q2 10:30 TD BUF (10:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-32-N.Bolton was injured during the play. BUF 9 – KC 7
  • Q2 04:18 TD KC (4:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-X.Worthy for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 10 – KC 13
  • Q2 02:00 TD KC (2:00) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BUF-97-J.Phillips, Unnecessary Roughness, 8 yards, enforced between downs. BUF 10 – KC 20
  • Q2 00:29 TD BUF (:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-M.Hollins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones]. Penalty on KC-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. BUF 16 – KC 21
  • Q3 03:01 TD BUF (3:01) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 22 – KC 21
  • Q4 10:20 TD KC (10:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 22 – KC 27
  • Q4 06:20 TD BUF (6:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 1-C.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 28 – KC 29
  • Q4 03:37 FG KC (3:37) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. BUF 29 – KC 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (14:08) 8-S.Martin punts 56 yards to KC 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 68%

    (3:49) 2-T.Bass 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:29) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end to KC 45 for 6 yards (7-Ta.Johnson).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:56) 8-S.Martin punts 45 yards to KC 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 81-N.Remigio to BUF 34 for 41 yards (42-Do.Williams).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 16 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 50%

    (10:08) 14-M.Araiza punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 72%

    (6:28) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right end to KC 30 for 3 yards (32-N.Bolton; 56-G.Karlaftis).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 99%

    (3:01) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:07) 14-M.Araiza punts 51 yards to BUF 24, Center-41-J.Winchester. 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at BUF 30 for 6 yards (2-J.Williams).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74% p(FG) 25%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle to 50 for 2 yards (23-D.Tranquill). FUMBLES (23-D.Tranquill), and recovers at 50. KC-95-C.Jones was injured during the play.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 52%

    (13:01) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard to KC 41 for no gain (32-N.Bolton). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (6:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 1-C.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 17 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 94%

    (3:37) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 5 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 23%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 86-D.Kincaid [56-G.Karlaftis].