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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 16 at the 42

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 14-M.Araiza punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.46 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model