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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 4

Buffalo Bills 22 – Kansas City Chiefs 29

What Actually Happened

(6:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 1-C.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.74 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 4, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model