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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 17 at the 17

Kansas City Chiefs 29 – Buffalo Bills 29

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.66 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 17, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model