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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 41

Buffalo Bills 22 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(13:01) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard to KC 41 for no gain (32-N.Bolton). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.21 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model