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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 53

Buffalo Bills 29 – Kansas City Chiefs 32

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 86-D.Kincaid [56-G.Karlaftis].

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.82 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 53, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model