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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2025-01-05 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

JAX
43.7%
IND
56.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • IND defense: +0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Joe Flacco (IND) -0.026 vs Mac Jones (JAX) -0.026 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

JAX 21
–
IND 22
Projected margin: IND by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

JAX

Walker Little T Out Ankle
Ventrell Miller LB Questionable Ankle

IND

Anthony Richardson QB Out Back
Julius Brents CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 23
–
IND 26

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:56 TD IND (13:56) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – IND 6
  • Q1 08:16 TD JAX (8:16) 73-B.Hance reported in as eligible. 4-T.Bigsby right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – IND 7
  • Q2 14:22 FG JAX (14:22) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 10 – IND 7
  • Q2 09:36 TD IND (9:36) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 10 – IND 13
  • Q2 03:27 FG IND (3:27) 7-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. JAX 10 – IND 17
  • Q2 01:28 FG JAX (1:28) 39-C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 13 – IND 17
  • Q2 00:17 FG IND (:17) 7-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. JAX 13 – IND 20
  • Q4 07:57 TD JAX (7:57) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 11-P.Washington to IND 1 for 8 yards (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), and recovers at IND 1. 11-P.Washington for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. JAX 19 – IND 20
  • Q4 03:57 FG IND (3:57) 7-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. JAX 20 – IND 23
  • Q4 01:49 FG JAX (1:49) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 23 – IND 23
  • Q5 05:27 FG IND (5:27) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. JAX 23 – IND 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 29%

    (6:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (4:27) 9-L.Cooke punts 62 yards to IND 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 6-A.Gould pushed ob at IND 27 for 7 yards (20-D.Thomas).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 32%

    (2:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at IND 48 for 0 yards (22-J.Jones).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 8 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 73%

    (14:22) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:14) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to IND 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 6-A.Gould to IND 26 for no gain (15-T.Jones).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 80%

    (3:27) 7-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (1:28) 39-C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%

    (:17) 7-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 29%

    (11:59) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to IND 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 8 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:52) 8-R.Sanchez punts 61 yards to JAX 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-D.Duvernay to JAX 38 for 8 yards (85-A.Ogletree).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 76%

    (2:47) 7-M.Gay 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:28) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to IND 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 6-A.Gould to IND 19 for 5 yards (20-D.Thomas; 15-T.Jones).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:54) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at JAX 16 for 7 yards (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 86%

    (3:57) 7-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 35 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 73%

    (1:49) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:22) 8-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.