4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 73

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to IND 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 6-A.Gould to IND 26 for no gain (15-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 73, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 31, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model