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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 52

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(2:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at IND 48 for 0 yards (22-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.02 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 52, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model