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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 82

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(4:27) 9-L.Cooke punts 62 yards to IND 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 6-A.Gould pushed ob at IND 27 for 7 yards (20-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.46 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 82, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.36 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 40, worth -2.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP