4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 91

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 8-R.Sanchez punts 61 yards to JAX 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-D.Duvernay to JAX 38 for 8 yards (85-A.Ogletree).

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.80 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 91, worth -5.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.73 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 48, worth -2.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model