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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 18

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(:17) 7-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.95 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 18, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 28, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model