Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CIN offense: +0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.172 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- CIN defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- DEN offense: +0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
- DEN on 3 more days rest than CIN
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
DEN
CIN
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:49 FG DEN (9:49) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 3 – CIN 0
- Q2 01:52 TD CIN (1:52) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 3 – CIN 6
- Q3 09:11 FG CIN (9:11) 3-C.York 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. DEN 3 – CIN 10
- Q3 03:14 TD DEN (3:14) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 9 – CIN 10
- Q4 11:37 TD CIN (11:37) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – CIN 16
- Q4 08:56 TD DEN (8:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep middle to 19-M.Mims for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 16 – CIN 17
- Q4 01:31 TD CIN (1:31) 62-M.Lee reported in as eligible. 9-J.Burrow up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 17 – CIN 23
- Q4 00:14 TD DEN (:14) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 19-M.Mims for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-C.Johnson]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DEN 23 – CIN 24
- Q5 01:10 TD CIN (1:10) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 24 – CIN 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 12Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EPp(convert) 56% p(FG) 96%
(9:49) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
-
Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 22Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 90%
(4:32) 30-C.Brown right guard to DEN 22 for no gain (15-N.Bonitto).
-
Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to CIN 23, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 18-I.Williams to CIN 27 for 4 yards (41-D.Sanders; 34-J.Skinner). ** Injury Update: DEN-27-D.Mathis has returned to the game.
-
Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%
(6:26) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at DEN 5 for -3 yards (0-J.Cooper).
-
Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 86Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EPp(convert) 75%
(5:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to CIN 38, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.
-
Q3 CIN 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%
(9:11) 3-C.York 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
-
Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 28Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 82%
(12:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown to DEN 17 for 11 yards (21-R.Moss; 6-P.Locke).
-
Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 25 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.74 EPp(convert) 69% p(FG) 86%
(:14) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 19-M.Mims for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-C.Johnson]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.