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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 3

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 3-C.York 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +3.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.84 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 3, worth +0.48 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.28 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP