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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 2

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(6:26) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at DEN 5 for -3 yards (0-J.Cooper).

The Three Options

GO +3.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.58 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 2, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model