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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 28

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(12:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown to DEN 17 for 11 yards (21-R.Moss; 6-P.Locke).

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.37 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model