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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 25

Denver Broncos 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(:14) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 19-M.Mims for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-C.Johnson]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.14 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -0.14 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.74 EP