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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 86

Denver Broncos 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to CIN 38, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.41 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 86, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 44, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP