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BAL Away

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Wednesday 2024-12-25 · 16:30 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -5.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

BAL
68.6%
HOU
31.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.192 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: C.J. Stroud (HOU) +0.000 vs Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.421 EPA/dropback
  • HOU defense: -0.061 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

BAL 27
–
HOU 21
Projected margin: BAL by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

BAL

Nelson Agholor WR Out Concussion
Jalyn Armour-Davis CB Out Hamstring
Justice Hill RB Out Concussion
Zay Flowers WR Questionable Shoulder
Tre'Davious White CB Questionable Shoulder

HOU

Folorunso Fatukasi DT Out Foot
Shaquille Mason G Out Knee
Juice Scruggs C Out Foot
Denico Autry DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 31
–
HOU 2

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:10 TD BAL (10:10) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – HOU 0
  • Q1 02:51 FG BAL (2:51) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 10 – HOU 0
  • Q2 10:15 SAF HOU (10:15) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard tackled in End Zone for -4 yards, SAFETY (4-K.Lassiter). BAL 10 – HOU 2
  • Q2 02:00 TD BAL (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 80-I.Likely for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 16 – HOU 2
  • Q3 13:30 TD BAL (13:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 23 – HOU 2
  • Q3 05:53 TD BAL (5:53) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 30 – HOU 2

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 15 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:20) 6-T.Townsend punts 29 yards to BAL 30, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 9 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 75%

    (2:51) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:58) 6-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to BAL 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross. PENALTY on HOU-37-D.Ross, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 8.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 20 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:31) 11-J.Stout punts 37 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 20 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (10:27) 6-T.Townsend punts 69 yards to BAL 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (5:39) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 28-J.Mixon pushed ob at BAL 1 for 3 yards (29-A.Washington, 25-T.White).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 54%

    (1:18) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 32%

    (:29) 11-J.Stout punts 37 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 14 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:31) 6-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to BAL 33, Center-46-J.Weeks. 18-S.Sims to BAL 38 for 5 yards (56-J.Hill).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 93%

    (2:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale to BAL 12 for 7 yards (0-R.Smith). Baltimore challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale to BAL 13 for 6 yards (0-R.Smith).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:33) 11-J.Stout punts 41 yards to HOU 22, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (10:37) 6-T.Townsend punts 61 yards to BAL 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 18-S.Sims to BAL 11 for 2 yards (17-K.Boyd).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 14 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 36%

    (3:32) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.