4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 70

Houston Texans 2 – Baltimore Ravens 31

What Actually Happened

(10:37) 6-T.Townsend punts 61 yards to BAL 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 18-S.Sims to BAL 11 for 2 yards (17-K.Boyd).

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.55 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP