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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 43

Houston Texans 2 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.19 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP