Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 20 at the 73

Houston Texans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

(10:27) 6-T.Townsend punts 69 yards to BAL 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.89 EP
75% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model