Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 31 – Houston Texans 2

(11:33) 11-J.Stout punts 41 yards to HOU 22, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.23 EP
59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model