4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 4

Houston Texans 2 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(5:39) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 28-J.Mixon pushed ob at BAL 1 for 3 yards (29-A.Washington, 25-T.White).

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.68 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 4, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model