4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
CHI Away

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Monday 2024-12-16 · 20:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

CHI
29.0%
MIN
71.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: +0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIN: Sam Darnold (MIN) +0.104 vs Caleb Williams (CHI) -0.090 EPA/dropback
  • CHI offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CHI 19
–
MIN 26
Projected margin: MIN by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

CHI

Ryan Bates G Out Concussion
Gervon Dexter DT Out Knee
Roschon Johnson RB Out Concussion
D'Andre Swift RB Questionable Groin

MIN

Stephon Gilmore CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 12
–
MIN 30

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:09 FG MIN (12:09) 16-W.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. CHI 0 – MIN 3
  • Q1 05:09 TD MIN (5:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – MIN 9
  • Q2 00:08 FG MIN (:08) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. CHI 0 – MIN 13
  • Q3 07:05 FG CHI (7:05) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 3 – MIN 13
  • Q3 01:40 TD MIN (1:40) 33-A.Jones right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – MIN 19
  • Q4 13:04 FG CHI (13:04) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 6 – MIN 20
  • Q4 10:19 TD MIN (10:19) 27-C.Akers right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI-29-T.Stevenson was injured during the play. CHI 6 – MIN 26
  • Q4 05:24 TD CHI (5:24) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 13-K.Allen for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 12 – MIN 27
  • Q4 01:16 FG MIN (1:16) 16-W.Reichard 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. ** Injury Update: MIN-17-R.Wright has returned to the game. CHI 12 – MIN 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:02) 4-D.Swift left end to CHI 39 for no gain (58-J.Greenard; 99-J.Tillery).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 75%

    (12:09) 16-W.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:20) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to MIN 9, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 90%

    (9:43) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Stevenson at CHI 16. 29-T.Stevenson to CHI 16 for no gain (18-J.Jefferson).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 83%

    (2:39) 4-D.Swift up the middle to MIN 29 for no gain (51-B.Cashman).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 5 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 96%

    (:08) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 20 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:59) 17-R.Wright punts 55 yards to CHI 25, Center-42-A.DePaola. 39-J.Blackwell to CHI 48 for 23 yards (32-T.Chandler). PENALTY on CHI-32-T.Smith, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 30.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:53) 19-T.Taylor punts 51 yards to MIN 5, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-30-T.Moore.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 3 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (10:49) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to CHI 39, Center-42-A.DePaola. 39-J.Blackwell pushed ob at CHI 42 for 3 yards (11-T.Sherfield).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (7:05) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 15 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

    (13:04) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:15) 19-T.Taylor punts 43 yards to MIN 29, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-B.Powell to MIN 40 for 11 yards (39-J.Blackwell).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 16 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:17) 17-R.Wright punt is BLOCKED by 90-D.Robinson, Center-42-A.DePaola, ball out of bounds at MIN 27. MIN-17-R.Wright was injured during the play.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (5:24) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 13-K.Allen for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 84%

    (1:16) 16-W.Reichard 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. ** Injury Update: MIN-17-R.Wright has returned to the game.