Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 54

Minnesota Vikings 27 – Chicago Bears 6

(6:17) 17-R.Wright punt is BLOCKED by 90-D.Robinson, Center-42-A.DePaola, ball out of bounds at MIN 27. MIN-17-R.Wright was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.28 EP
70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 54, worth -2.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model