Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 20 at the 80

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(13:59) 17-R.Wright punts 55 yards to CHI 25, Center-42-A.DePaola. 39-J.Blackwell to CHI 48 for 23 yards (32-T.Chandler). PENALTY on CHI-32-T.Smith, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 30.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 80, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model