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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 23

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:43) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Stevenson at CHI 16. 29-T.Stevenson to CHI 16 for no gain (18-J.Jefferson).

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.63 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model