4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 72

Chicago Bears 6 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 19-T.Taylor punts 43 yards to MIN 29, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-B.Powell to MIN 40 for 11 yards (39-J.Blackwell).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.87 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model