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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 28

Minnesota Vikings 27 – Chicago Bears 12

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 16-W.Reichard 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. ** Injury Update: MIN-17-R.Wright has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.31 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 38, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model