Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- TEN offense: -0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- WAS offense: +0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- WAS defense: -0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 13
TEN
WAS
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:05 TD WAS (12:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson right tackle for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – WAS 6
- Q1 02:28 TD WAS (2:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – WAS 13
- Q1 00:30 TD WAS (:30) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – WAS 20
- Q2 11:02 TD WAS (11:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TEN 0 – WAS 27
- Q2 00:28 TD TEN (:28) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – WAS 28
- Q3 08:45 FG TEN (8:45) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 10 – WAS 28
- Q3 03:44 FG TEN (3:44) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 13 – WAS 28
- Q4 14:19 TD WAS (14:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – WAS 34
- Q4 07:13 TD TEN (7:13) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep middle to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 19 – WAS 35
- Q4 03:34 TD WAS (3:34) (Shotgun) 36-C.Rodriguez left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 19 – WAS 41
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 25%
(9:09) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(9:02) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 58 yards to WAS 24, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-O.Zaccheaus to WAS 38 for 14 yards (52-J.Williams). PENALTY on WAS-24-M.Davis, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at WAS 24.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 18 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 82%
(1:56) 47-Z.Gonzalez 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 13 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(12:57) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to TEN 29, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 37 for 8 yards (58-J.Magee).
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Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 89%
(8:45) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(13:59) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 52 yards to WAS 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-O.Zaccheaus to WAS 29 for 11 yards (81-J.Whyle; 80-B.Oliver).
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Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 71%
(9:21) 47-Z.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 38 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59% p(FG) 62%
(4:45) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 12-L.McCaffrey to TEN 31 for 7 yards (57-L.Gifford, 37-A.Hooker).
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Q4 TEN 4th & 8 at the 68 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(2:48) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep right to 81-J.Whyle.