Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 82

Tennessee Titans 0 – Washington Commanders 28

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 58 yards to WAS 24, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-O.Zaccheaus to WAS 38 for 14 yards (52-J.Williams). PENALTY on WAS-24-M.Davis, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at WAS 24.

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.06 EP
60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model