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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 19 – Washington Commanders 42

What Actually Happened

(2:48) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep right to 81-J.Whyle.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.84 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 68, worth -1.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 26, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model