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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 53

Tennessee Titans 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.50 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 53, worth -3.26 EP
KICK -2.01 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP