Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 81

Washington Commanders 28 – Tennessee Titans 7

(12:57) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to TEN 29, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 37 for 8 yards (58-J.Magee).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.77 EP
66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model