HOU @ JAX — 4th & Data

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HC DeMeco Ryans

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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson

Sunday 2024-12-01 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

HOU

48.2%

JAX

51.8%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

JAX defense: +0.170 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
JAX on 7 more days rest than HOU
JAX offense: -0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
HOU offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
HOU defense: -0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
QB edge to HOU: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.012 vs C.J. Stroud (HOU) -0.004 EPA/dropback (JAX starting Trevor Lawrence in place of Mac Jones)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 21

–

JAX 23

Projected margin: JAX by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

HOU

Folorunso Fatukasi DT Out Foot

Jalen Pitre S Out Shoulder

Xavier Hutchinson WR Questionable Shoulder

JAX

Yasir Abdullah LB Out Hamstring

Trevor Lawrence QB Questionable Left Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 23

–

JAX 20

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q2 14:56 FG HOU (14:56) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 3 – JAX 0
Q2 06:29 FG HOU (6:29) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 6 – JAX 0
Q2 00:12 FG JAX (:12) 39-C.Little 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. HOU 6 – JAX 3
Q3 10:10 FG JAX (10:10) 39-C.Little 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. HOU 6 – JAX 6
Q3 08:07 TD HOU (8:07) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 12 – JAX 6
Q3 01:20 FG HOU (1:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 16 – JAX 6
Q4 12:18 TD HOU (12:18) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 22 – JAX 6
Q4 07:56 TD JAX (7:56) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 11-P.Washington for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-4-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. HOU 23 – JAX 12
Q4 03:35 TD JAX (3:35) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 23 – JAX 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 71

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP

p(convert) 53%

(13:29) 9-L.Cooke punts 64 yards to HOU 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 2-R.Woods to HOU 17 for 10 yards (46-R.Matiscik).
Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 53

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 23%

(4:52) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to HOU 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 2-R.Woods to HOU 16 for 3 yards (15-T.Jones; 20-D.Thomas).
Q1 HOU 4th & 8 at the 67

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(3:02) 6-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49%

(2:06) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to HOU 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.
Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 35

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 68%

(14:56) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 36

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 59% p(FG) 66%

(12:05) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 86-D.Schultz to JAX 30 for 6 yards (26-A.Johnson).
Q2 HOU 4th & 11 at the 11

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

(6:29) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q2 JAX 4th & 9 at the 15

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 95%

(:12) 39-C.Little 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 63

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP

p(convert) 56%

(13:41) 6-T.Townsend punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.
Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 12

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

(10:10) 39-C.Little 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48%

(6:25) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to HOU 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 3-T.Dell ran ob at HOU 39 for 14 yards (89-L.Farrell). PENALTY on JAX-89-L.Farrell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 39.
Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 10

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%

(1:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 37

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 63%

(14:02) 39-C.Little 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 29

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 80%

(9:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 12-D.Duvernay to HOU 24 for 5 yards (20-J.Ward).
Q4 JAX 4th & 8 at the 22

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%

(7:56) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 11-P.Washington for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-4-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48%

(6:12) 6-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-D.Duvernay to JAX 16 for 5 yards (43-N.Hewitt).