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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 10

Houston Texans 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.55 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 10, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP