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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 37

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(14:02) 39-C.Little 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.72 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.83 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model