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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 53

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to HOU 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 2-R.Woods to HOU 16 for 3 yards (15-T.Jones; 20-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.02 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.52 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model