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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 36

Houston Texans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(12:05) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 86-D.Schultz to JAX 30 for 6 yards (26-A.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.53 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model