Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 65

Houston Texans 23 – Jacksonville Jaguars 12

(6:12) 6-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-D.Duvernay to JAX 16 for 5 yards (43-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.84 EP
52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 65, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model