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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Thursday 2024-11-07 · 20:15 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

CIN
32.0%
BAL
68.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.253 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.371 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.182 EPA/dropback
  • CIN defense: +0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • BAL defense: +0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 23
–
BAL 29
Projected margin: BAL by 6 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

CIN

Tee Higgins WR Doubtful Quadricep
Charlie Jones WR Doubtful Groin
Orlando Brown T Questionable Knee
B.J. Hill DT Questionable Rib

BAL

Isaiah Likely TE Out Hamstring
Brent Urban DE Out Concussion
Jalyn Armour-Davis CB Doubtful Knee
Rasheen Ali RB Questionable Ankle
Keaton Mitchell RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 34
–
BAL 35

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:27 TD CIN (9:27) 94-S.Hubbard and 62-M.Lee reported in as eligible. 30-C.Brown right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – BAL 0
  • Q2 13:08 TD BAL (13:08) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 15-N.Agholor for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – BAL 6
  • Q2 00:36 TD CIN (:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – BAL 7
  • Q3 13:21 TD CIN (13:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 20 – BAL 7
  • Q3 04:17 TD BAL (4:17) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 21 – BAL 13
  • Q4 13:44 TD BAL (13:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 16-T.Wallace for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 21 – BAL 20
  • Q4 05:56 TD BAL (5:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 21 – BAL 26
  • Q4 05:50 TD CIN (5:50) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 27 – BAL 28
  • Q4 01:56 TD BAL (1:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 7-R.Bateman for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 28 – BAL 34
  • Q4 00:42 TD CIN (:42) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 34 – BAL 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (8:01) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to CIN 10, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 54%

    (3:01) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 81-J.Burton.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (11:35) 8-R.Rehkow punts 46 yards to BAL 16, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (9:26) 11-J.Stout punts 46 yards to CIN 34, Center-46-N.Moore. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 30 for -4 yards (54-K.Welch; 28-S.Kane).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (7:47) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 87-T.Hudson. 87-T.Hudson up the middle to CIN 40 for 1 yard (98-T.Jones; 92-N.Madubuike).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 16 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:40) 8-R.Rehkow punts 46 yards to BAL 20, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:08) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to CIN 27, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:28) 11-J.Stout punts 35 yards to CIN 33, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 17 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:08) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to CIN 16, Center-46-N.Moore. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 17 for 1 yard (40-M.Harrison). PENALTY on CIN-28-J.Newton, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at CIN 16.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 16 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 57%

    (14:50) 8-R.Rehkow punts 32 yards to BAL 8, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 71%

    (9:29) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep left to 81-J.Burton.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 70 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 80-A.Iosivas to CIN 40 for 10 yards (44-M.Humphrey) [98-T.Jones]. The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.