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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 16 at the 66

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 8-R.Rehkow punts 46 yards to BAL 20, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.68 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 24, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model