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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 62

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 8-R.Rehkow punts 46 yards to BAL 16, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.05 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 62, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP