Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Baltimore Ravens 35

What Actually Happened

(1:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 80-A.Iosivas to CIN 40 for 10 yards (44-M.Humphrey) [98-T.Jones]. The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP

What Happened

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.52 EP
62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -2.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model