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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 61

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(7:47) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 87-T.Hudson. 87-T.Hudson up the middle to CIN 40 for 1 yard (98-T.Jones; 92-N.Madubuike).

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.95 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 61, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 20, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model