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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 64

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(8:01) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to CIN 10, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.19 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 22, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model